Dr. Benjamin’ Systems Thinking Blog

[The Electronic Oracle] ④ Three Yardsticks That Keep Computer Models from Becoming Oracles Before introducing the types of models. Instead, this article organizes three critical distinctions— Structure/Parameter , Exogenous/Endogenous , and Accuracy/Precision —that we must verify to ensure any model does not become an "oracle." Questioning the Essence of Modeling: Three Core Standards from The Electronic Oracle In The Electronic Oracle , D. H. Meadows and J. M. Robinson place these ideas early because they separate not only methods, but mindsets. Authors define what we should look for in a model. These concepts are not mere definitions; they are criteria that distinguish the modeler’s attitude and philosophy toward the world. (p.12) 1. Structure vs. Parameter Structure + Endogenous = 'Why.' (Explanation) Parameters + Exogenous = 'Given.'  (Settings) Structure: Definition:  the system’s working mechanism—the pattern of causality that generates behavior over tim...

  [The Electronic Oracle] ③ Assumptions Aren’t “Guesses”: A Proposal for Transparent Democracy When I teach System Dynamics or computer modeling, I often encounter a word that instinctively annoys both students and practitioners: "Assumption." The dictionary reveals the source of this discomfort. Assumption :  “a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof .” (Oxford Languages) For scientists, the phrase "without proof"  can sound like an insult. So when someone says, “That’s just your assumption,” scientists rush to defend themselves: "No! I have evidence!" In this post, I want to restore the honor of this word. Modeling assumptions are not mere tricks to patch missing data; they are influential political acts that transform secret dictatorships into transparent democracies. This article distinguishes two layers of assumptions: The Assumption as Belief (Type A)   hides in the mind and operates on authority The Model Assumption (T...

  [The Electronic Oracle] ② The Questions to Ask When You Face a Model: A Checklist for Citizens and Policymakers Before we turn to the technical yardsticks for evaluating models (Post ④—research) and the philosophy of assumptions (Post ③), we need to learn how to ask questions. A computer model becomes a modern “oracle” when it dulls our judgment. To prevent that, here are three questions you should ask every time you meet a model. This checklist is not mainly for model builders. It is for model users—citizens, journalists, policymakers, and administrators. Question 1: “What number is currently serving as our ‘authority’?” (Focus: guarding against false certainty) A model becomes an oracle when its output—stripped of context—poses as the essence of reality. Checklist Is the number accepted without proof? Is this number used as the sole justification for a policy decision? Have the conditional statements ("if") attached to the number been cut from meetings, reports, or d...